Data Room

Uncertainty register

§16Data Room

Uncertainty register.

QuantityValueUncertaintySensitivity
kg per mbar3.88×10¹⁵<1%Low
Accessible CO₂~20 mbar~2×High
Regolith nitrate300 ppm NO₃~15×Very high
Accessible water20–40 m GEL~2×Low
Titan N₂8.6×10¹⁸ kg<10%Low
Δv Titan→Mars9.5 km/s±20%Moderate
Propulsion efficiency30–50%speculativeHigh
Aerosol warming+30 K at 30 L/smodel-dependentHigh
The weakest number in this analysis. It rests on a single crater. A global nitrogen survey is the highest-value measurement in Phase 0.

References

  • Ansari et al. 2024 · Science Advances
  • Jakosky & Edwards 2018 · Nature Astronomy
  • Wordsworth, Kerber & Cockell 2019 · Nature Astronomy
  • McKay, Toon & Kasting 1991 · Nature
  • Turyshev 2026 · arXiv:2603.00402 · APS Open Science
  • Kite et al. 2026 · arXiv:2604.02242
  • DeBenedictis et al. 2025 · Nature Astronomy
  • Richardson et al. 2026 · GRL
  • Stern et al. 2015 · PNAS
  • Hassler et al. 2014 · Science
  • Laskar & Robutel 1993 · Nature
  • Green et al. 2017 · LPI
  • Sparrow 1999 · Environmental Ethics
  • Bar-On, Phillips & Milo 2018 · PNAS
  • Zubrin & McKay 1993 · AIAA
  • McKay & Marinova 2001 · Astrobiology