Warming is notan energy problem.
Mars surface ≈ 210–218 K. Melting point 273 K. Need +55–63 K for global melt, +30 K for seasonal meltwater.
Mars absorbs ~1.6×10¹⁶ W for free. Warming is a control problem: modulating a flux that already arrives. That is why warming costs megatons while pressure costs exatons.
Mechanisms, ranked
- 01Engineered IR-active aerosols
~9 μm conductive nanorods from Martian dust; ~30 L/s sustained, 10-yr lifetime → ≳30 K global warming; ~5,000× more mass-efficient than the best greenhouse gases; processes ~2×10⁷ m³/yr.
- 02Silica aerogel solid-state greenhouse
A 2–3 cm layer transmits photosynthetic light, blocks UV, raises subsurface above 273 K with no heat source. The near-term-realistic option.
- 03Perfluorocarbon super-greenhouse gases
Thousands× CO₂ forcing, century-to-millennium lifetimes. Limited by Martian fluorine and 10⁶–10⁹ t/yr throughput.
- 04Orbital reflectors
~125 km radius, ~2×10⁵ t, +5 K poleward of 70° S. Statite station-keeping.
Every warming mechanism is maintenance-limited. Aerosols sediment. Gases photolyse. Mirrors drift. There is no set-and-forget state. Warming is a permanent operating expense.